Where we connect hot water and marshmallows

Messages from the Edge November 2024

Where we are

“Environments can be as deterministic as we once believed only genes could be and… the genome can be as malleable as we once believed only environments could be.”
― Walter Mischel, The Marshmallow Test: Mastering Self-Control

To review, as your EcoDharma Doula, for the next three months, I will offer you a monthly contemplation on what is commonly called ‘Getting to Zero.’ Science tells us we have 25 years to reduce our emissions to Zero. We are looking at a carbon reduction diet, which begins by looking at the big picture. We wish to turn the right side to Zero by 2050 or:
(Lighting + Heating + Cooling + cooking + driving + refrigeration + embodied energy + heating water + utilities + gardening + vampire energy) – (Clean Energy we Produce or Offset) = (Everything we Use)
This month, we are getting into hot water (glub, glub). We have the metaphoric and mundane aspects to consider. Metaphorically, a reminiscence on chopping wood and carrying water sums up the experience.
Looking at the mundane facts, your home water heating accounts for 20% of your household energy consumption. A water heater’s life expectancy is 10-15 years, so even if you have recently replaced your gas-fired water heater, it will be replaced before our mid-century target. The early warning signs of imminent failure include insufficient hot water, leaky water heaters, unusual noises, inconsistent temperature, low water pressure, and discoloration and odors.
If you have a gas-fired water heater (tank or tankless), this article will inform you of today’s carbon-free replacement options.

And the Marshmallows?

“The idiosyncrasies of human preferences seem to reflect a competition between the impetuous limbic grasshopper and the provident prefrontal ant within each of us.”
― Walter Mischel, The Marshmallow Test: Mastering Self-Control

The Stanford Marshmallow Test, famously exploring delayed gratification in children (one now or two later), reveals a range of cognitive biases primarily related to decision-making under uncertainty, reward processing, and self-control.

Our progress in healing our relations with Earth mirrors the biases in the marshmallow test and is a common challenge in economic decision-making. People often choose the immediate, lower upfront cost because of present bias (favoring immediate rewards over future savings) and time inconsistency (intentions to “save in the long run” become less appealing when faced with the upfront expense). Loss aversion also plays a role; paying a higher initial cost feels riskier or more problematic to justify, even if the lifetime savings are substantial. Additionally, future savings are often discounted due to uncertainty or a lack of immediate feedback on their value, further tilting decisions toward the short-term reward.
The implications are especially relevant in areas like energy efficiency or sustainable purchasing, where long-term savings are significant but can feel intangible or distant.

Alan Ness has agreed to share his wisdom and experience heating water this month. Please take it from here, Alan…
And now a word from your fellow Collectivist
Article by Alan Ness  11/1/24
HOT WATER HEATERS
Recommendation:  Opt out of using a gas hot water heater and be prepared to select an electric heat-pump water heater after your existing gas water heater dies.[#1]. A friend recently replaced his hot water tank and I asked why he did not get a heat pump water heater. He told me: “Alan, it was an emergency.”
CONTEXT: ABOUT ELECTRIFICATION
From Samrat Pathania on Earth Salon: “Our global civilization has begun an irreversible march away from fossil fuels toward zero-carbon technologies which run on electricity.”
If all of our houses stop burning oil and gas, we can focus our clean energy efforts on one thing: the utility companies that provide the electricity. Many are already moving towards clear energy (wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, etc). And even on relatively dirty grids, electric alternatives represent fewer net carbon emissions.
And, yes, there are grid management solutions even when the sun doesn’t shine. [#2]
From the 7/9/2021 Volts podcast: What does Job One consist of? This is important: while different climate models disagree about which policies and technologies will be needed to clean up remaining emissions after 2030, virtually all of them agree on what’s needed over the next decade. It’s clean electrification:
clean up the electricity grid by replacing fossil fuel power plants with renewable energy, batteries, and other zero-carbon resources;
clean up transportation with electric vehicles; and
clean up buildings by replacing furnaces and other appliances that run on fossil fuels with electric equivalents.
Or as I summarize it: electrify everything! [#3]
A key fact: Seattle (where I live) has electricity that is 97% renewable sourced, mainly hydropower. It is important to know the source of your electricity and fight for power companies to convert to 100% renewables.
CONTEXT: COSTS
Can you expand your definition of costs? Can you focus on the long-term savings, ease of maintenance, and energy conservation?
The initial price gives just a peephole view of the true cost of a product. A higher purchase price may mean a better deal for you in the long run.
Plus, look for government or utility rebates!!
HOT WATER HEATER CHOICES
First choice: Heat Pump Hot Water Heater (all-electric). It’s not crazy Vulcan technology!   Available today from Home Depot or local remodel stores. It saves you $375/year, and has built-in Wi-Fi and the EcoNet app, so you can check hot water availability, track energy usage and control modes such as efficiency or performance modes. Easy to install, easy to maintain. Your savings should cover the cost in about 4.5 years. Some people think they are noisy, others do not mind the fan sound.
Second choice: Tankless Hot Water Heater (gas powered) Compared:
Heat pump water heaters are three to five times more efficient than tankless water heaters. They both require less energy than a standard water heater, however.
To help break down the energy efficiency comparisons between water heaters, manufacturers rate water heaters using the Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) rating [higher value is better].
Tankless water heaters have a .91 to .99 UEF rating.
Heat pump water heaters have a 4.0 UEF rating.   The higher the UEF rating, the more energy-efficient a water heater is.
FOOTNOTES
#1. (Alan’s Story) Back in 2008 when we moved into our current house, a tankless hot water heater was seen as superior to hot water tanks that constantly heat your water. Now in 2024, I hesitate to replace our gas powered tankless heater because it works well and allows us to fill our tub in the winter without boiling pots of water to complete the fill. So it will stay for now. A compromise.
FOOTNOTES: VOLTS PODCAST
#2 Grid management : https://www.volts.wtf/p/what-the-sun-isnt-always-shining
#3 One main solution: electrification On climate policy, there’s one main thing and then there’s everything else
Will a watched pot ever boil?

“What we do, and how well we control our attention in the service of our goals, becomes part of the environment that we help create and that in turn influences us. This mutual influence shapes who and what we become, from our physical and mental health to the quality and length of our life.”
― Walter Mischel, The Marshmallow Test: Mastering Self-Control

The choice between conventional and energy-efficient water heaters may seem like a straightforward price comparison. Still, it embodies a more profound challenge in decision-making: balancing immediate costs with long-term benefits. Often, people opt for the low upfront cost of a standard water heater, overlooking the higher operational expenses that accumulate over its lifetime. This decision mirrors our choices in other areas of life, where short-term savings or convenience can lead to far greater costs. Just as the actual expense of an inexpensive home printer comes from its ink cartridges, the hidden costs of an inefficient water heater add up with every use, making the initial savings far less substantial over time.

For a progressive audience, this choice extends beyond personal finances to encompass environmental impact. Opting for an efficient water heater means reducing emissions, conserving resources, and aligning with sustainable values. It requires a shift in thinking—recognizing that by making mindful, future-oriented choices, we contribute to a more resilient and sustainable world. This decision is an everyday action with significant consequences, reinforcing that even in heating water, we can create positive change by valuing long-term gains over immediate gratification.
Summary

“Nuclear power is one hell of a way to boil water“ — Albert Einstein.

One of the most common carbon reductions is how we heat water. A gas stove takes 5 minutes to boil a whole kettle of water; an induction stove takes 1 minute to accomplish the same task. We know a water heater will fail, and we know that it will fail the day before a four-day weekend. This eventuality is your opportunity to act proactively rather than our habitual reactivity and to savor the transition to renewably sourced hot water on your terms.
My future prediction:
The sun’s core is so hot, and there is so much pressure nuclear fusion takes place: hydrogen is changed to helium. This atomic fusion creates heat and photons (light). The sun’s surface is about 6,000 Kelvin, 10,340 degrees Fahrenheit (5,726 degrees Celsius). The amount of solar heat and light is enough to light up Earth’s days and keep our planet warm enough to support life. As we harvest free sunlight for electricity, we will soon see more low-cost solar hot water that is simpler than today’s far too complicated solutions. If we take the 20% of your household energy used for hot water and reduce this through passively pre-heating your present system’s water initial load, we would see a significant drop in our energy demand (lowering costs) while maintaining your present comfort. We will do what we can, where we are, with what we’ve got.

And, remember:

“Do what you can, where you are, with what you have.” ~ Teddy Roosevelt